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Retail Outlet Business Excel Financial Projection  Model

Highly versatile and user-friendly Excel financial projection model for new/existing retail outlet business

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Highly versatile and user-friendly Excel model for the preparation of a rolling 3 statement (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) financial projection for a new or existing retail business selling goods through an outlet (e.g. grocery store, clothing store, household store, restaurant, beverage store,etc).

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The model also incorporates a discounted cash flow valuation calculation using the projected cash flows. The model follows best practice financial modelling principles and includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations.

KEY OUTPUTS

  • Projected full financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) for any of the 3 scenarios, presented on a quarterly basis across up to 5 years and summarised on an annual basis.

  • Dashboard with:

    • Summarised projected Income Statement and Balance Sheet

    • Compounded Annual Growth rate (CAGR) for each summarised income statement and Balance Sheet line item

    • List of key ratios including Average revenue growth, Average profit margins, Average return on assets and equity and Average Debt to Equity ratio.

    • Bar charts summarising income statement and Balance Sheet projections

    • Gross Profit margin by revenue stream in table and bar-chart format

  • Discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow output.

KEY INPUTS

Setup Inputs:

  • Name of business;

  • Currency;

  • First projection year and quarter;

  • Naming for product categories, variable costs, staff costs, other expenses and fixed assets;

  • Sales tax applicability for revenue streams, variable costs, other expenses and fixed assets.

 

Actuals Inputs:

  • Opening balance sheet (for existing businesses);

  • Income Statement actuals (for trend analysis);

 

Projection Inputs:

  • Revenue inputs including average traffic by week day, monthly seasonality factor, conversion rate, sales mix by product category and credit terms offered;

  • Cost of Goods sold including cost per product category, safety stock and average credit terms received;

  • Other costs inputs including other variable costs, staff costs, marketing costs and fixed costs;

  • Sales and corporate tax inputs including rate and payment periods;

  • Dividend inputs including amount (percentage of retained earnings) and frequency;

  • Fixed Assets including addition amounts and useful life;

  • Borrowings including addition amounts and interest rate;

  • Share Capital additions;

  • Discount rate inputs (for valuation calculation).

MODEL STRUCTURE

The model comprises of 9 tabs split into input ('i_'), calculation ('c_'), output ('o_’) and system tabs. The tabs to be populated by the user are the input tabs ('i_Setup', ‘i_Actuals’ and 'i_Assumptions'). The calculation tab uses the user-defined inputs to calculate and produce the projection outputs which are presented in 'o_Fin Stats', ‘o_Charts’ and ‘o_DCF’.

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System tabs include:

  • A 'Front Sheet' containing a disclaimer, instructions and contents;

  • A checks dashboard containing a summary of checks by tab.

KEY FEATURES

  • The model follows best practice financial modelling guidelines and includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations;

  • The model contains a dynamic timeline that allows for a mix of Actual and Forecast period across a 5-year period allowing projections to be rolled forward with minimal effort;

  • Timeline is split on a monthly basis and summarised on an annual basis;

  • The model allows the user to model 5 separate product categories;

  • Costs are split into: variable and other costs for better driver-based forecasting;

  • The model allows for the following number of underlying categories for each line item (these can be easily expanded if required):

    • Product Categories – 5 categories;

    • Cost of Goods Sold – 5 categories (1 for each Product Category);

    • Other Variable costs – 3 categories;

    • Staff costs – 5 categories;

    • Marketing costs – 3 categories;

    • Other expenses – 10 categories;

    • Fixed assets – 3 categories.

  • Apart from projecting revenue and costs the tool includes the possibility to model receivables and payables, fixed assets, borrowings, dividends, corporate tax and sales tax;

  • Business Name, currency, starting projection period are fully customisable;

  • Revenue, Cost and Fixed Asset descriptions are fully customisable;

  • The model included an integrated discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow outputs;

  • The model includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations to help ensure input fields are populated accurately;

  • The model includes a checks dashboard which summarises all the checks included in the various tabs making it easier to identify any errors.

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