MODEL OVERVIEW
 
The Business Survival Probability Model assesses whether a business will remain solvent over a 5-year period by analysing its projected cash flows under uncertainty. Instead of relying on a single forecast, the model combines a fully integrated 3-statement financial projection (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine (1,000 iterations) to generate a range of possible outcomes.
 
Users can simulate multiple revenue streams and growth profiles, model cost structures and incorporate capital expenditure and depreciation, alongside probability-based funding events (equity and debt). The model explicitly analyses the impact of uncertainty across all key financial drivers, providing a realistic view of performance and risk.
 
It tracks monthly cash balances and net asset balances across all scenarios, determining survival based on liquidity and identifying when and how often cash falls below zero.
 
Key outputs include:
Mean financial statement projection outcomes
Probability of survival and failure over 5 years 
Cash runway and timing of potential failure 
Average minimum cash position
Distribution of cash balances and net asset outcomes 
 
Built using best-practice financial modelling principles, the model provides a clear, decision-focused framework to evaluate financial resilience, plan funding needs and understand risk answering the critical question: Will the business run out of cash, and what does it take to avoid it?
 
KEY OUTPUTS
 
Mean Projected full financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) presented on a monthly basis across 5 years and summarised on an annual basis.
Mean Projection Dashboard with:
Summarised projected Income Statement and Balance Sheet;
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for each summarised income statement and balance sheet line item;
List of key ratios including average revenue growth, average profit margins, average return on assets and equity and average debt to equity ratio;
Tables and Bar charts summarising revenue, direct expenses and rental volumes;
Charts and graphs showing: cash balance by month, cash flow statement breakdown and income statement breakdown.
Business Survival Dashboard with:
Key metrics on total projected funding, survival probability, failure probability, cash runway and average minimum cash position
Distribution of cash balances and net assets in table and graphical format.
Summary of projected funding.
 
KEY INPUTS
 
Setup Inputs:
Name of business;
Currency;
First projection year and month;
Naming for revenue streams, operating costs, fixed assets, borrowings and share capital addition events;
 
Actuals Inputs:
Opening balance sheet (for existing businesses);
 
Projection Inputs:
Revenue assumptions including mean revenue for first 12 months and growth rates thereafter, uncertainty percentages, credit terms offered and bad debt percentages.
Variable cost assumptions including variable cost percentages, uncertainty percentages and average credit terms received.
Other operating costs including inflation rates and uncertainty percentages;
corporate tax inputs including rate and payment periods;
Fixed assets including addition amounts, useful life and uncertainty percentates;
Borrowings including addition amounts, interest rate, maturity date, funding probability and interest rate uncertainty;
Share capital additions including addition month and probability;
 
KEY FEATURES
 
The model contains a flexible timeline with 60 projection months;
Timeline is split on a monthly basis and summarised on an annual basis; 
The model is not password protected and can be modified as required following download;
The model allows for the following number of underlying categories for each line item (these can be easily expanded if required):
Revenue Streams – 3 types;
Operating Expenses – 10 types;
Fixed Assets – 5 types;
Borrowings – 3 types
Share capital additions – 5 funding events
Outputs are presented on a deterministic (mean) basis and a stochastic basis (1,000 simulations), highlighting the potential variability in results driven by key financial assumptions.
Business name, currency, starting projection period are fully customisable;
Revenue, costs and fixed asset descriptions are fully customisable;
The model includes instructions, checks and input validations to help ensure input fields are populated accurately; 
The model includes a checks dashboard which summarises all the checks included in the various tabs making it easier to identify any errors. 
 
MODIFICATIONS & SUPPORT
 
If you require any be-spoke modifications or support, we are more than happy to assist. Please send us a message below or contact us on hello@useprojectify.com